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46. How can outgoing longwave flux increase as CO2 increases?
Evolution in time of fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in several GCMs running the standard scenario in which CO2 is increased at the rate of 1%/yr until the concentration has quadrupled. A...
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47. Relative humidity over the oceans
The change in near surface relative humidity averaged over CMIP5 models over the 21st century in the RCP4.5 scenario. Dec-Jan-Feb is on the left and June-July-Aug on the right. From...
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48. Increasing vertically integrated water vapor over the oceans
Percentage changes in total water vapor, vertically integrated and averaged over 20S-20N over the oceans only, comparing the RSS microwave satellite product (red) to the output of an atmospheric model...
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49. Volcanoes and the Transient Climate Response – Part I
Some results on the response of a GCM (GFDL’s CM2.1) to instantaneous doubling or halving of CO2 (left) and to an estimate of the stratospheric aerosols from the Pinatubo eruption. From Merlis et al...
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50. Volcanoes and the Transient Climate Response – Part II
Left: The response to instantaneous quadrupling of CO2 in three GFDL models, from Winton et al, 2013a. Right: The ensemble mean response of global mean surface air temperature to Pinatubo in two...
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51. The simplest diffusive model of oceanic heat uptake and TCR
(Sign errors corrected — Oct 31) Vertical diffusion of heat has often been used as a starting point for thinking about ocean heat uptake associated with forced climate change. I have chosen instead...
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52. Warming and reduced vertical mass exchange in the troposphere
Fractional change in global mean precipitation (blue) and global mean (horizontally and vertically integrated) water vapor (red) as a function of change in global mean surface air temperature, over the...
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53. The rapidly rotating “fruit fly”
Magnitude of eastward winds in the upper troposphere in the “fruit fly” model using the Earth’s rotation rate (bottom) and using a rotation rate that is 4 times larger (top). The red saturates at...
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54. Tropical tropospheric warming revisited: Part 1
Mid-tropospheric temperature trends (TTT channel — see below) from a given start date till 2008, plotted as a function of start date, in three analyses of the MSU data (thin lines) and in an...
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55. Tropical tropospheric warming revisited: Part 2
Vertical profile of temperature trends averaged over 20S-20N in two models. Solid: trends in a 30-year (1970-2000) realization of the CM2.1 coupled model using estimated forcing agents from...
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56. Tropical ocean warming and heat stress over land
Multi-model median of changes in near surface a) temperature, b) relative humidity, and c) equivalent potential temperature between the historical simulation (1975-2004) and the RCP8.5 (2079-2099)...
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57. Teleconnections and stationary Rossby waves
This animation is the response of a two-dimensional flow on the surface of a rotating sphere to a source that mimics stationary localized heating centered on the equator. The top panel is a...
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58. Addicted to global mean temperature
Traditional “lapse rate feedback” in CM3 models, over the 21st century in the A1B scenario, plotted against the degree of polar amplification of surface warming in those models (tropical – 30S-30N...
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59. How (not) to evaluate climate models
Fig. 9.8 from the AR5 Working Group 1 IPCC report. Global mean surface temperatures simulated by a set of climate models, shown as anomalies from the time mean over a reference period 1961-1990....
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60. The quality of the large-scale flow simulated in GCMs
Given the problems that our global climate models have in simulating the global mean energy balance of the Earth, some readers may have a hard time understanding why many of us in...
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61. Tropical tropospheric warming revisited: Part 3
Upper tropospheric warming trends in AMIP (prescribed sea surface temperature) simulations at 300mb over the period 1984-2008 averaged from 20S-20N, in the CMIP5 archive. Red and blue correspond to...
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62. Poleward atmospheric energy transport
Upper panel: annual mean northward atmospheric energy transport as a function of latitude averaged over the control simulations in CMIP3. The total flux is shown as well as the decomposition into the...
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63. How unusual is the recent evolution of the tropical Pacific
A proxy for the strength of the trade winds in the North Pacific: nitrogen isotope records from three sediment cores off the west coast of North America (blue = 33oN, green =25oN , red = 24oN). More...
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64. Disequilibrium and the AMOC
The strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26N , in units of Sverdrups (106 m3/s), plotted against the ratio of the Transient Climate Response to the Equilibrium...
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65. Small Earth, deep atmosphere, and hypohydrostatic models
A key problem in atmospheric modeling is the large separation in horizontal scales between the circulations that contain the bulk of the kinetic energy and dominate the horizontal transport of heat,...
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